The Fed spent the weekend making sure no one expects it to stop. Two regional Fed presidents warned that high inflation risks becoming accepted as normal and that more tightening may be needed, and the bond market had already moved ahead of them. US 10-year yields are at their highest since 2007, borrowing costs are rising around the world, and markets now lean towards another hike in October.

What matters most is the gap between short- and long-term rates, which has almost closed. When that gap disappears, it has historically been a warning sign for growth, and banks, which earn money on that spread, are already under pressure. This week’s inflation and jobs figures will decide whether it keeps narrowing.

Energy remains the pressure underneath all of it. Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal on Hormuz, Tehran is not softening, and Trump has left the door open to more strikes even as he talks up a deal and lower oil prices once the war ends. Talks may resume this week, but oil is still sharply higher this year and keeps inflation elevated everywhere it is imported.

Outside Washington, the RBA is expected to raise rates on Tuesday, with Australian inflation following a day later. Europe and Japan both publish inflation data this week, with their central banks leaning towards tighter policy too. Trump and Xi extended their trade truce without a breakthrough, and new US restrictions on Canadian goods take effect on Tuesday.

Dates shown in UTC. Markets to watch are listed in parentheses.

Monday 28 September

• BoJ July minutes (USD/JPY)

Tuesday 29 September

• RBA rate decision (AUD/USD)
• US bans on Canadian goods take effect (USD/CAD)
• US JOLTS and Conference Board consumer confidence (USDX, SPX500)

Wednesday 30 September

• Australian CPI (AUD/USD)
• China PMIs (HK50, AUD/USD)
• German inflation (EUR/USD)
• Canadian GDP (USD/CAD)
• US core PCE and ADP (USDX, XAU/USD, SPX500)
• Micron earnings (SPX500)
• Japan Tankan survey (USD/JPY)

Thursday 1 October

• Australian trade balance (AUD/USD)
• US ISM manufacturing (USDX, SPX500)
• Hong Kong holiday (HK50)
• Tokyo CPI (USD/JPY)

Friday 2 October

• Eurozone flash HICP and core HICP (EUR/USD)
• US nonfarm payrolls and average hourly earnings (USDX, XAU/USD, SPX500, BTC/USD)

The US Dollar Index trades at 101.27, near a one month high after a September rally built on rising real yields and a widening rate gap with other major economies. Fed officials are leaning into it. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned that persistent inflation risks conditioning the public to accept elevated prices, and Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said "some modest further tightening may be warranted."

The data run is heavy. ADP is expected at 70K after 38K, core PCE at 3.4% from 3.3%, ISM manufacturing at 54.8 and Friday's payrolls at 100K after 162K. This week's PCE also carries new methodology for several price measures, alongside annual GDP revisions back to 2021, so the headline may need a second look. The cap on the dollar is that the RBA, ECB and BoJ are all tightening too, which limits how far policy can diverge.

Price Levels

• Support: 100.47 → 100.00 → 99.67
• Resistance: 101.26 → 101.47 → 101.73

Technical View: A mid-September triangle breakout targets 101.60, just under the July highs. The 100.00 zone is supported below.

Outlook: Bullish bias. Firm data carries the index to the triangle target and the June high near 101.80, while a soft payrolls print is the main risk, with 100.47 the line to watch.

The Australian dollar trades at 0.7014, holding just above the 0.7000 handle ahead of an RBA decision the market treats as done. A 25 basis point hike would take the cash rate from 4.35% to 4.60%, its highest since November 2011, so the real question is Governor Bullock's guidance on whether November is live.

Wednesday's monthly CPI is expected to jump to 4.1% from 3.5%, a large move that would land the day after a hike. A print near that would keep the RBA tightening alongside the Fed and narrow the policy gap that has weighed on the currency. China's PMIs arrive the same morning and matter for Australia's export story.

Price Levels

• Support: 0.7000 → 0.6960 → 0.6922
• Resistance: 0.7027 → 0.7043 → 0.7064

Technical View: The August rising wedge has broken lower, targeting 0.6960. A second bottom forming above 0.7000 is the bullish counter.

Outlook: Two sided. Hawkish guidance and a hot CPI favour the double bottom, while a cautious RBA and a close below 0.7000 complete the wedge target at 0.6960.

WTI trades at 96.88 as the Hormuz standoff enters its eighth month without a deal. Trump rejected Iran's seven day proposal, Tehran says it will not soften, and Iran's Gulf strait authority has warned shipowners against unauthorized routes. Trump expects talks to resume this week and is weighing a diesel export ban.

Two forces pull in opposite directions. Trump said that once the war is won, oil will go "way down to what it was before the war," which the market reads as a ceiling on escalation. Against that, Treasury Secretary Bessent said Iran will likely make its final oil deliveries to China within two weeks, with only about 15 million barrels left on the water, which tightens physical supply from here.

Price Levels

• Support: 93.06 → 89.18 → 84.80
• Resistance: 99.38 → 102.66 → 106.94

Technical View: A late August triangle breakout ran to 106 before pulling back. The 93 zone has held and higher lows are forming.

Outlook: Two sided. A resumption of talks drags it back toward 93.06, while a failed round or fresh strikes put 102.66 and the September high back in play.

Gold trades at 4,256, below the 4,284 first support published on 21 September. It is caught between oil-driven inflation, which should help, and a 10 year yield above 5.2%, which raises the cost of holding an asset that pays nothing. So far yields are winning.

This week's data decides which side gives. Hot core PCE and payrolls add to hike pricing and keep pressure on gold, while a soft labour print or an escalation in the Gulf would bring buyers back. The longer-run support has not gone away: China's Treasury holdings fell to $618bn, the lowest since August 2008, a reminder that reserve diversification is still running underneath the rate story.

Price Levels

• Support: 4,235 → 4,200 → 4,120
• Resistance: 4,280 → 4,365 → 4,400

Technical View: A potential double bottom is forming around 4,260, with a neckline near 4,400 and a target near 4,600. Daily moving averages between 4,320 and 4,360 are capping rebounds.

Outlook: Cautious. The double bottom needs 4,235 to hold, and a close below it opens 4,200, while a recovery through 4,365 is needed before the pattern deserves weight.

The S&P 500 trades at 7,729 after gaining 1.2% last week, holding near its highs despite the jump in yields. The strength is narrow. Megacap technology carried the market while small caps fell and the KBW Bank Index sits 10% below its high as the flattening curve compresses lending margins.

Foreign money is still arriving. Overseas investors bought a record $942bn of US equities in the 12 months to July, the most since data began in 1985, while demand for US debt fell. Micron reports Wednesday as a read on the AI trade and Nike on Thursday as a read on the consumer, with AI policy also in focus after Trump met AI chief executives over the weekend.

Price Levels

• Support: 7,700 → 7,650 → 7,580
• Resistance: 7,757 → 7,785 → 7,820

Technical View: An August rectangle breakout targets 7,880, still unmet. Since then the price has ranged between 7,580 and 7,800.

Outlook: Rangebound. A close above 7,820 reopens the path to the rectangle target, while losing 7,650 puts the 7,580 base of the range back in play.

USD/CAD trades at 1.4155, up nearly 3% from its early September low as both the trade war and the rate gap favour the US dollar. On Tuesday the US bans on most Canadian alcohol, some dairy products and larger motorcycles take effect, largely replacing 50% tariffs on those goods and answering Canada's C$27.6bn in counter-tariffs.

Canadian GDP lands Wednesday, and crude is the second input. Higher oil normally supports the loonie as one of Canada's largest exports, and its failure to help this month shows how firmly trade and yields are in charge.

Price Levels

• Support: 1.4150 → 1.4123 → 1.4080
• Resistance: 1.4170 → 1.4238 → 1.4250

Technical View: A clean run of higher highs and higher lows since early September. The July peak at 1.4240 to 1.4250 is next.

Outlook: Bullish but stretched. The trend is intact, but the July highs are the obvious place for profit taking, and a close back below 1.4080 would signal the run is over.

Bitcoin trades at 84,440, inside the 83,000 to 86,000 liquidation shelf flagged two weeks ago, after a push to 87,378 last Monday faded through the week.

Our 21 September call was wrong. We flagged a double top and set 82,200 as the level that would invalidate it, and price cleared it the day the issue was published. Risk appetite held up through the yield spike, the Nasdaq rose 2% on the week, and Bitcoin traded with technology stocks rather than with bonds. The hawkish Fed is still a headwind, which is why the rally has stalled rather than extended.

Price Levels

• Support: 83,800 → 80,500 → 79,330
• Resistance: 85,225 → 87,400 → 90,000

Technical View: A late September breakout from the 76,000 to 81,000 range. Price is now consolidating beneath the 87,400 spike high.

Outlook: Consolidating. Holding 83,800 keeps 87,400 and 90,000 in view, while a break below it turns attention to 80,500, the top of the old range.

USD/JPY trades at 157.47, still running on the rate gap with the 10 year Treasury above 5.2%. The Bank of Japan pushed back on Monday. Minutes of the July meeting showed many members see household and business inflation expectations rising, one said the bank must speed up rate hikes, and another warned that the weak yen and Middle East events could lift inflation expectations further.

The Tankan survey is expected to improve to 25 from 22, and Tokyo CPI lands late Thursday UTC against a prior of 1.9%. Firm readings on both would support pricing for a faster BoJ, and the approach toward 160 also brings the risk of official intervention back into view.

Price Levels

• Support: 156.65 → 154.66 → 153.25
• Resistance: 158.00 → 158.62 → 159.77

Technical View: A rising wedge from the September low has broken lower, targeting 154.70. The rally stalled at the upper line of the broader falling wedge from July.

Outlook: Bearish bias. The wedge break points to 154.66 if the Tankan and Tokyo CPI back a BoJ move, while strong US payrolls is the risk that lifts it back to 158.00.

The Hang Seng trades at 24,465, about 6% below its August high. Trump and Xi extended their trade truce to 10 January 2027 in Washington, but produced no new tariff cuts and no firm commitments on chips, leaving the index without the catalyst it needed.

Two things could change that. Beijing is signalling that Alibaba and ByteDance may be allowed to buy Nvidia's new RTX Pro 5500 chips, a direct positive for China's AI names. Wednesday's NBS manufacturing PMI is expected at 50.1 from 49.8, back into expansion. Liquidity will be thin from Thursday, with Hong Kong closed for National Day and the mainland on its Golden Week holiday.

Price Levels

• Support: 24,300 → 24,000 → 23,500
• Resistance: 24,750 → 25,000 → 25,400

Technical View: A falling wedge since late August, with a potential double bottom at 24,300. A break above 25,000 targets 26,000 to 26,500.

Outlook: Cautious. The setup leans bullish but is unconfirmed, and a close below 24,300 opens 24,000 and 23,500.